Asure Software (Nasdaq: ASUR) forecast 2027 revenue of $183 million to $187 million on October 29, its first outlook for next year, as third-quarter revenue rose 10% from a year earlier to $40.0 million. Recurring revenue, 92% of the total, grew 16% to $36.9 million.
The shares rose 24.5% to $9.00 immediately after the report, which came after the market closed on October 29, StockStory reported. The midpoint of the 2027 range, $185 million, is 13.5% above the midpoint of the company's 2026 forecast, by SaasBuzz's calculation, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26% to 28%.
Why the shares rose
The quarter landed at the top of the guidance Asure gave in July, $38 million to $40 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $10.5 million was above the top of its $8 million to $10 million range. Against analysts' estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, revenue was 2.4% higher and adjusted EBITDA 18.6% higher, StockStory reported. Its $43 million midpoint for fourth-quarter revenue was also above the $41.81 million consensus StockStory cited.
The 2027 forecast includes a payroll processor in the southeastern United States that Asure bought in October for $26.5 million. John Pence, the chief financial officer, put the business at "around $10 million run rate" when it was bought, and said the 2027 midpoint implied growth of 13% to 14%, "majority of that's going to be organic," according to a call transcript published by The Motley Fool.
Chairman and CEO Pat Goepel tied the forecast to a target Asure set years ago.
Just a few years ago, we laid out a goal of $180 million to $200 million in revenue. And with today's forecast for 2027 of $183 million to $187 million, we are close to crossing the goal line.Pat Goepel, chairman and CEO of Asure, on the October 29 earnings call
Q3 | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue ($M) | 40.0 | 36.3 | +10% |
Recurring ($M) | 36.9 | 31.8 | +16% |
Services, other ($M) | 3.1 | 4.4 | -29.5% |
GAAP net loss ($M) | 0.6 | 5.4 | Narrower |
Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 10.5 | 8.1 | +29% |
Non-GAAP gross margin | 75.4% | 70.1% | +5.3 pts |
Source: Asure's third-quarter results release. Services, other is professional services, hardware and other revenue. Its change and the margin change are SaasBuzz calculations; adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP gross margin are non-GAAP measures.
Why growth slowed to 10%
Total revenue growth fell from more than 20% in each of the three previous quarters. Recurring revenue did not slow as much: it grew 14% in the first quarter, 19% in the second and 16% in the third, according to Asure's releases. The difference is in the smaller line. Professional services, hardware and other revenue fell to $3.1 million from $4.4 million, while recurring revenue added $5.1 million.
Quarter | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
Q4 2025 | $39.3M | 27.7% |
Q1 2026 | $42.8M | 22.7% |
Q2 2026 | $37.1M | 23.2% |
Q3 2026 | $40.0M | 10.4% |
Q4 2026 guide | $43.0M | 9.4% |
Source: the eight-quarter revenue table in Asure's third-quarter release. Growth rates and the fourth-quarter midpoint are SaasBuzz calculations. Asure says its first quarters are seasonally strong because year-end W-2 and ACA filing revenue is recognized then.
Pence said on the call that the decline "was primarily due to reduced professional services provided as part of large tax deals in the prior year," and that the fourth quarter would be "a similar story." Goepel said in the release that organic revenue growth was 9% in the quarter and organic recurring growth 14%.
The forecast against the old one
Asure now expects 2026 revenue of $162 million to $164 million, up from $159 million to $163 million in July. The $2 million rise in the midpoint, to $163 million, includes the acquired business: Pence said he expected "a couple of million" of its revenue in the fourth quarter. The 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast is now $40 million to $42 million, against a margin target of 24% to 25% in July.
Asure also refinanced. On October 15 it drew an $85 million term loan from a bank group led by MUFG Bank, part of a facility of up to $115 million, and used $62.6 million to repay its loan from MidCap Financial Trust. Pence said he expected "around $8 million of interest costs" for 2027. The quarter's GAAP net loss narrowed to $0.6 million, or 2 cents a share, from $5.4 million.
What to watch
The fourth-quarter range implies growth of about 9% at the midpoint, with acquired revenue in it, so the 2027 forecast asks for faster growth next year than Asure expects to end this one with. Goepel said the company expects organic recurring growth "in the double digits again in the fourth quarter," and that Asure will share updated retention figures with its year-end 2026 release.
